Prediction-market probabilities: preserve the contract before reading the forecast

A dated correction separates public macro records from an unregistered prediction-market contract, call cohort and allocation study. Unsupported probabilities, returns and thresholds are withdrawn.

What changed in this article

Editorial correction · 9 September 2026. The original article was published on 22 February 2026 and said that Kalshi pricing implied a greater-than-50% chance of a 2026 U.S. stock-market correction. It also presented N=336 influencer calls, a 4.6 percentage-point risk-adjusted comparison, an S&P 500 level, a N=19 midterm-year panel and defensive sleeve percentages. The page did not preserve the contract identifier, question, settlement rule, price/volume history, retrieval timestamp, call register, portfolio rows or calculations. Those probability, cohort, return, frequency and allocation claims are withdrawn. The original URL and publication date remain unchanged.

A prediction-market price is contract-specific and time-specific. It must not be paraphrased as a universal forecast or as a reason to change an allocation.

What the dated macro records establish

Source date and record	Dated fact	Boundary
20 February 2026 · BEA GDP advance estimate for Q4 and 2025	The advance estimate reported real GDP growth of 1.4% at an annual rate for 2025 Q4. The Q4 PCE price index increased 2.9% at an annual rate, and the measure excluding food and energy increased 2.7%.	These are original-vintage macro observations. The page did not supply a contemporaneous expectation snapshot that would support its “versus consensus” labels.
20 February 2026 · BEA Personal Income and Outlays for December 2025	The December PCE price index increased 0.4% from November and 2.9% from December 2024; excluding food and energy, the monthly increase was 0.4%.	This is a monthly release with a different frequency from quarterly SAAR GDP/PCE. It does not establish a prediction-market probability or portfolio result.
Kalshi markets	The original source list points to the public market platform.	No contract ID, resolution text, historical price/volume snapshot or settlement record was preserved for the claimed 2026 correction probability.

The BEA releases can support a dated macro chronology. They do not validate a contract probability, influencer posture or defensive-portfolio advantage.

What is withdrawn

The greater-than-50% Kalshi reading, S&P 500 level, 336-call audit, 4.6pp risk-adjusted result, 19-year midterm panel, 13/19 frequency, median drawdown and time-to-trough figures, defensive/influencer sleeve ranges, and the proposed probability-triggered risk rule are not verified findings. No replacement probability, return comparison or allocation instruction is published.

The neutral research question—how market-implied odds and public positioning differ—remains possible only after the contract and portfolio registers are frozen. It is not answered by a dashboard link.

Minimum register for a future prediction-market comparison

Record the contract ticker and exact question; open/close and settlement timestamps; resolution source and rule; bid/ask or trade price, volume and retrieval time; timezone; call URL, author, timestamp and wording; index/instrument and portfolio definitions; benchmark, weights and rebalance rules; fees and slippage; and the complete calculation output. Store expectation and outcome data separately.

Original publication: 22 February 2026. Correction: 9 September 2026. AI-assisted source checking and writing; no independent human expert review. This page is educational market research, not personalized investment advice.